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          Tight inventory, prompting MLCC prices to rise again, industry demand is picking up?

          2020-02-13 14:17:02

          According to Taiwan media reports, because the inventory level is too low and the crop rate is not full, MLCC leader Guoju has orally notified customers that it intends to increase the prices of resistors and capacitors for channel vendors and EMS customers. The first wave of average increases is about 30%. . The new price will take effect as soon as March 1, and customers who accept the new price are expected to prioritize delivery. Regarding the price adjustment news, Guoju said that it will not comment on the price strategy.

          It is understood that the inventory level of Yageo was difficult to distribute, and the finished product inventory was less than 50 days. Market sources said that MLCC supply was tightly affected by comprehensive factors such as 5G, strong demand for automotive electronics, and the volcanic eruption in the Philippines, which was affected by domestic resumption due to the epidemic.

          On the one hand, 5G and automotive electronics drove demand for MLCCs. The number of MLCCs on 5G mobile phones is 20% higher than that of 4G mobile phones. The number of MLCCs for a high-end mobile phone will be 1200 to 1500, and the number of MLCCs for mid-range mobile phones will also increase to more than 500 to 600.

          At present, domestic leading manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, VIVO, OPPO, etc. have successively launched 5G mobile phones. According to relevant data, in the whole year of 2019, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 389 million units, of which 13.69 million 5G mobile phones.

          At the same time, the automotive electronics market has also brought a lot of new MLCC demand. The average consumption of ordinary MLCCs is about 3000, the number of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles is about 12,000, and the number of pure electric vehicles is about 18,000. The number of MLCCs required for pure electric vehicles is about six times that of conventional internal combustion vehicles.

          And the increase in the penetration rate of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and the improvement of autonomous driving performance will also drive the demand for on-board MLCCs. According to the data of the Industry Institute, MLCCs for automobiles are becoming an increasingly important source of demand, accounting for 16%.

          On the other hand, the volcanic eruption in the Philippines has severely curtailed overseas production capacity. Due to the volcanic eruption in the Philippines, Manila Airport closed and traffic disruptions may affect shipments of MLCC manufacturers. Korean factories Samsung Motors, Japanese factories Taiyo Yuden, and Murata all have MLCC plants in the Philippines. There is no doubt that the decline in the supply of MLCCs due to airport shutdowns has become a foregone conclusion. At present, more than 80% of MLCC capacity in the Philippines is used to supply Southeast Asian markets Mainland China, of which half of China. The MLCC capacity in the Philippines mainly produces diodes and capacitors for photovoltaics, home appliances, and panel module industries, and manufacturers in mainland China occupy the world's most important market shares in these areas.

          As a whole, affected by the above factors, MLCC has seen frequent price hikes since December 2019. With the improvement of MLCC's scene, the passive component giants began to add MLCC capacity in 2018, but the production equipment was mainly imported from Japan, and the equipment delivery period was 18 to 24 months. Therefore, the new production line was put into production between the end of 2019 and 2021.

          In addition, from the perspective of market size, the global MLCC market size was approximately US $ 10.94 billion in 2017, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25.4%, and it is expected that it will reach US $ 18.94 billion by 2022. At the same time, the global MLCC market sales in 2017 were approximately 4.200 billion, and it is estimated that it will reach 500 billion by 2020. Among them, the MLCC output in China in 2017 was 2.474 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and the sales were 2.484 billion , An increase of 16.8% year-on-year, the export volume was 138.3 billion, an increase of 3.0%; it is estimated that by 2022, China's market output may reach 370.7 billion.

          At present, the companies that produce MLCCs in the A-share market are mainly Fenghua Hi-Tech, Torch Electronics, Sanhuan Group, and Guoci Materials.

          Fenghua Hi-Tech: The company has continued to promote capacity expansion since the second half of 2017, investing in “additional monthly output of 0201 0201 MLCC technology transformation and expansion projects”, “MLCC automation improvement technology transformation project” and “additional monthly output of 1 billion stacks” Inductor Technical Transformation and Expansion Project ".

          From 2016 to 2018, Fenghua Hi-Tech's revenue increased from 2.774 billion to 4.58 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to mothers surged from 86 million yuan to 1.017 billion yuan.

          However, as the price of electronic component products has fallen, Fenghua Hi-Tech's main business has fallen sharply. Although the demand for the electronic component market has stabilized and rebounded at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, there is still a large gap from the peak period of 2018. A few days ago, the company released a forecast of 2019 results, with an estimated profit of 270 million yuan to 400 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.68% -73.46%.

          Moreover, the company was once pushed to the forefront of public opinion because of the event of executives conspiring to make false profits of 60 million yuan. Among the fines issued by the regulatory authorities, the three chairmen of the board of directors were all in one pot, which can be called the most "luxury" lineup in the history of Xinpi violations.

          Torch Electronics: in September 2019, the company plans to issue a high-tech industrialization project of 600 million yuan of convertible bonds to raise and invest small volume thin dielectric layer ceramic capacitors for two years. After completion, the company will increase the capacity of 8.4 million small volume thin dielectric layer ceramic capacitors annually. It is expected to achieve an annual income of 624 million yuan.

          In terms of performance, the company has maintained stable growth in recent years. In the first three quarters of 2019, the operating revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.72%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.23%.

          However, it is worth noting that the company's accounts receivables have grown rapidly. This indicator was 1.119 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2019, accounting for 65% of revenue. Related investors need to pay attention to the excessive account receivables. Risk in the capital chain.

          Sanhuan Group: In 2001, the company introduced the MLCC production line, and its product size covers all sizes from 0402 to 2225; its temperature characteristics include X5R, X7R, COG and Y5V series, and its product capacity has reached 107 levels. In recent years, Sanhuan has promoted R & D of MLCC product lines and investment in production capacity. In 2019, the production capacity doubled from last year.

          However, the company's performance in 2019 declined more severely. Recently, the company issued a 2019 performance forecast. During the reporting period, the company achieved a net profit of 791 million to 889 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0% to 40%.。

          National Porcelain Materials: Its products cover electronic ceramic dielectric materials, structural ceramic materials (nanocomposite zirconia and alumina, etc.), building ceramic materials (ceramic inks, glazes), and electronic metal pastes (silver paste, aluminum paste, copper Paste, nickel paste, etc.), the company's current MLCC production capacity is 10,000 tons / year.

          The company's performance fell slightly in 2019. Recently, the company released a 2019 performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent for the year will be 495 million to 525 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.85% to 3.32%.

          In addition, since November 2019, the company's shareholders, Dongying Aoyuan industry and trade, have reduced their holdings for many times, accumulatively by 1.528 million shares and accumulatively by 35.29 million yuan.

          In addition, from the perspective of stock price performance, since January this year, Fenghua hi tech has risen nearly 30%, and Sanhuan group, Hongda Electronics and shunluo electronics have risen no more than 6%.

          In terms of valuation, the top three are National Porcelain Materials, Sunlord Electronics, and Hongda Electronics, which are 47.9, 47.6, and 38.9 respectively. As the MLCC boom continues to increase, its valuation has room for improvement. Pay attention to the risk of overvaluation.

          As a whole, the price of MLCC in 2019 falls obviously, so the performance of related companies has been affected to a certain extent. Moreover, the market of MLCC has been dominated by enterprises from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, especially in the high-end MLCC fields such as ultra-small, high-capacity, high-frequency and high-pressure industries in Japan. There is still a way for domestic related enterprises to break the monopoly situation I have to go.


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